Transwatch “Fact Sheet” No

Transwatch “Fact Sheet” No. 9 – Vehicle costs

Railway carriages cost at least £1m & may have and have 75 seats. Modern stock may last 30 years. The capital recovery factor is 0.054. Hence the annual cost of the capital is £54,400. Annual maintenance may set to 7.5% of capital providing £75,000. Hence the total is £129,400 annually or £1750 per seat per year

Ø ‘Railway carriages cost at least £1m each & may have and have 75 seats’ – what does it mean?

Ø He doesn’t give the source of the 7.5%.

Ø Railfuture points out that if an HST was stripped out, and fitted with bus density seating, the number of seats would increase from 450 to 1300. It would be as comfortable as a bus but not as a train. Rail fares would fall to one third.

A basic express coach with 50 seats may cost £150k, & may last 21 years; 7 of which may be in ‘first use’, 7 ‘second use’, 7 ‘third use’ eg as school bus. Against that we assume a life of 15 years. We assume annual maintenance at 7.5% of capital although we have the range 2-12.5% from the industry. On that basis, & with interest at 3.5%, the annual cost per seat is £485 – 3.6 times less than for the railway carriage.

Ø Note the repeated use of ‘may’ & ‘assume’.

Ø A coach industry contact states that a basic coach has 49 seats but only 48 are booked, leaving one for a second driver or courier. This contact puts the cost at £225k, & says 21 years is unrealistic - 15 is about the limit & 10% of capital for maintenance is more likely than 7.5% - 2% is derisory.

Ø DfT Statistics show the average age of coaches & buses is 8 years, so 21 years would be rare. There may be a shoestring operation with one.

Ø He seems to have taken 7.5% as the average between 2% & 12.5%. An average cannot be calculated that way.

Ø The consequence of cheapness is evident when a coach turns over. Compare one death in a well loaded 110mph train with multiple deaths & amputations in a coach on the M25 near Heathrow in 2007.

‘Fact Sheet 9’ is valueless